Sat, 28 May 2022

Playoff parlay play: Rams at Buccaneers

Field Level Media
23 Jan 2022, 06:55 GMT+10

Sunday's NFL doubleheader opens with the Los Angeles visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a rematch of Week 3 game won by the Rams.

From a betting perspective, there is a reasonable argument that either team could win this game -- and reach the Super Bowl out of the NFC with another victory next week -- which ratchets up the investment intrigue.

To get into the action with a bet, we cooked up a Same Game Parlay that includes some extremely high hit-rates on the season. This particular SGP was constructed on FanDuel.

Rams vs Buccaneers SGP: 173 on FD

This parlay is four legs, and before we break down why each is a part of this bet, let's show the entire SGP.

The SGP:

Cooper Kupp 70 Receiving Yards

Tom Brady 225 Passing Yards

Tyler Johnson 25 Receiving Yards

Rams 10.5

If you wanted to increase the odds, you could bump up each of these prop totals, but we went with the safer route with some low totals.

--Cooper Kupp 70 Receiving Yards

We start with Cooper Kupp. Kupp was the best wide receiver in football this season, leading the league in receptions, yards and touchdowns.

His over/under for this game is currently at 100.5 yards, so 70-plus should be well within grasp against a sagging secondary.

Kupp hit this total in 16 of 18 games this season, good for an 89% hit rate. Considering he's averaging 111.6 yards per game and seeing 11 targets per game from Matthew Stafford, I feel comfortable with this number.

The Buccaneers secondary is where you'll want to attack if you're the Rams, with a strong run defense poised to shut down the combination of Sony Michel and Cam Akers.

In a game that should have plenty of scoring, Los Angeles will turn to the passing game, and in turn, Kupp.

--Tom Brady 225 Passing Yards

We hit another low alternate line for Brady, needing just 225-pus passing yards to secure the second leg of our parlay.

Brady hit this total in 15 of 18 games this season, including against the Rams -- finishing with 432.

Los Angeles has the best run defense in football, and no team throws more often than Tampa Bay.

If you wanted to bump your odds up, Brady at 250 brings the odds up to 201. I prefer the safer route.

Brady is averaging 310.4 passing yards per game this season.

--Tyler Johnson 25 Receiving Yards

I like Johnson to exceed 25 receiving yards, which he's done in two of the last three games since Chris Godwin went down with a torn ACL.

Johnson is third on this team in targets and the WR2 in this offense.

Los Angeles allows the third-most receptions per game to wide receivers, and Johnson is sure to get some looks from Brady.

--Rams 10.5

This is another underdog that I think can win this weekend, so we bump the spread to 10.5 for some insurance.

Los Angeles matches up well with Tampa Bay, especially if Pro Bowl right tackle Tristan Wirfs misses the game as expected.

Brady's biggest losses in the postseason have typically come against teams with an elite pass rush. Well, Aaron Donald and Von Miller make up just a part of what has been the best defensive line in football this season. The Rams's 50 sacks are third in the NFL and they should be getting to Brady all game.

If Stafford can pick apart a vulnerable secondary and this Los Angeles defense comes to play, the Rams can at minimum keep this game within 10 points.

This is another I would be comfortable bumping to less of a spread to boost your SGP odds.

This NFC battle on Sunday should be a good one, so enjoy the game and the entire weekend of football!

--By Griffin Carroll, Field Level Media

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